Statistical view of the CPL predictions in 2019

Jamaica Tallawahs will take on St Lucia Zouks in the 9th match of CPL 2019. Most of the expert CPL predictions for this match are likely to predict a JT win. One reasonable explanation behind a clear favourite is the betting odds for the specific team’s win.

Who will win – Probabilities

In this context, the betting odds for Jamaica Tallawahs are 1.57 while SLZ has odds of 2.38. The betting odds represent an indicative probability of a team’s win. Going by these odds, Jamaica Tallawahs have a 63.69% chance of a win, while the probability of a win for SLZ is 44.44%.

Now, if one is to predict the possible winner with this information at hand, Jamaica Tallawahs would be the clear choice. However, this percentage of probability changes as the match progresses. A few things that affect the odds and thereby the indicative probability are fall of wickets, boundaries, wickets in hand, run rate, and batsmen’s strike rates.

Underdogs and CPL Predictions

In CPL 2019, the favourite team won 6 of the first 8 matches. In the 8th match, the odds wouldn’t give a clear favourite as both SNP and Barbados Tridents had a 54% winning probability. While the 7th match had similar odds as offered for Jamaica Tallawahs vs St Lucia Zouks.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots played Jamaica Tallawahs at home and had a 42% winning probability (indicative) before the match started. Jamaica Tallawahs started the match with a 63% winning probability, and lost defending 241 runs.

While it was one of the rare occasions where a team would chase down such a big total, most of the CPL predictions giving the favourites an edge have turned correct. The next match in CPL 2019 has Jamaica Tallawahs as favourites with the same winning probability as their previous match.

Jamaica kicked off the season playing against Trinbago in their first match at Trinidad. After their match against St Lucia Zouks, Jamaica host Trinbago Knight Riders in the 10th CPL match. Trinbago were clear favourites for the previous contest between the two teams with a 60% indicative probability of a win.

Jamaica vs Trinbago – Who Will Win?

How much of an impact Jamaica’s performance against St Lucia Zouks has on their winning probability would be interesting to see. Batting is Jamaica Tallawahs’ strength. And if they deliver another great performance in the next match, the difference between the winning probabilities in JT vs TKR would be much lesser than before.

This would also affect most of the CPL predictions as there would be many factors in JT’s favour. Jamaica Tallawahs seem likely to get back to winning ways soon. So, in a contest like JT vs TKR, the key would be timing of the prediction. A pre-match prediction would lack the information that’s available to build a prediction during the live match.

Guyana Amazon Warriors and Trinbago Knight Riders are the unbeaten teams in CPL 2019 so far. While they have 3 out of 3 matches so far, a loss in the league stage is inevitable. There will be a few CPL predictions in the next few matches predicting a loss for GAW and TKR. It is likely that TKR or GAW would lose a match where the indicative probability shows them as the favourites.